Newsletter
Austin, Texas – In the Tom Clancy novel, The Hunt for Red October, a rogue submarine Captain plunges into the depths of darkness in the sea, and cuts off all communication with its homebase, while loaded with nuclear ballistic missiles. The ensuing panic sets off alerts all over the world. The realization that one rogue officer can set off global thermonuclear war, brings about the realization of how fragile our world balance really is.
The threat we face today is the combined world economy, and the fragility of all central banks globally. Central banks, essentially print money out of thin air and control the money supply in each country. Our country has run up a $33 trillion deficit and the rogue leaders of the world continue to flood markets with more currency. On Tuesday, the US added $275 billion debt – IN ONE DAY! US debt now totals $33.442 trillion after hitting $33 trillion only two weeks ago and is on pace to rise by $1 trillion a month according to Zero Hedge. If you think you’ve seen inflation, you haven’t seen anything yet.
30-year US mortgage rates broke 8% on Thursday. This yield surge will send banks unrealized losses, $140 billion higher to a record $700 billion. The bond market bloodbath has begun. Overnight UK’s Metrobank was halted after the market became aware that the bank was trying to raise £600 million in debt and equity. Expect US regional banks to follow.
Here are a few statistics that stand out; housing affordability in the US is the worst on record, per the NAR. The WTO warned of a “broad-based” global trade slow down, slashing forecasts. Credit card delinquency rates are up over 50% from a year ago. The median household income last year was $74,580 compared with $76,330 in 2021, according to the census bureau. This 2.3% drop in incomes was the highest since 2010, and the third straight annual decline. Blackstone’s massive CRE REIT recorded 11 straight months of outflows. WeWork has stopped paying interest payments on its debt. Iraq will fully de-dollarize all cash transactions by year end. US research firm Challenger reports September job cuts rose 58% year over year.
More rental buildings are expected to open over the next two years than at any time since the 1980s. This huge supply of new housing is coming into a market with banks that are not lending and borrowers who are not spending. The ensuing result is infinitely predictable. Oversupply, tightening credit, and lower spending will lead to opportunity for those who remain in cash. At Next Frontier we liquidated our entire portfolio in mid 2022 and have remained in cash since.
In addition to our existing cash portfolio, we are receiving indications of interest for future investment, and will be deploying when the time is right. I can tell you that in my 35 years in these markets, I believe there will never be a better buying opportunity than one the one we are about to see. Please request our brochure and/or schedule an appointment to discuss the Next Frontier of Real Estate Investing by clicking the link below. The time to take action is now, and the place to invest is in real assets. Let us show you how the demographic situation in Texas will translate into profits, where to invest, and what to buy.